Lead time and overdiagnosis in prostate-specific antigen screening: importance of methods and context.

Publication Type:

Journal Article

Authors:

Draisma, Gerrit; Etzioni, Ruth; Tsodikov, Alex; Mariotto, Angela; Wever, Elisabeth; Gulati, Roman; Feuer, Eric; de Koning, Harry

Source:

Journal of the National Cancer Institute, Volume 101, Issue 6, p.374-83 (2009)

Keywords:

2009, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Center-Authored Paper, Early Detection of Cancer, Europe, Humans, Incidence, Male, Mass Screening, Middle Aged, Models, Statistical, Models, Theoretical, Netherlands, Prostate-Specific Antigen, Prostatic Neoplasms, Public Health Sciences Division, Risk Assessment, Risk Factors, SEER Program, Sensitivity and Specificity, Shared Resources, Time Factors, Tumor Markers, Biological, United States

Abstract:

The time by which prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening advances prostate cancer diagnosis, called the lead time, has been reported by several studies, but results have varied widely, with mean lead times ranging from 3 to 12 years. A quantity that is closely linked with the lead time is the overdiagnosis frequency, which is the fraction of screen-detected cancers that would not have been diagnosed in the absence of screening. Reported overdiagnosis estimates have also been variable, ranging from 25% to greater than 80% of screen-detected cancers.