Bayesian accrual prediction for interim review of clinical studies: open source R package and smartphone application.

Publication Type:

Journal Article


Trials, Volume 17, Issue 1, p.336 (2016)


BACKGROUND: Subject recruitment for medical research is challenging. Slow patient accrual leads to increased costs and delays in treatment advances. Researchers need reliable tools to manage and predict the accrual rate. The previously developed Bayesian method integrates researchers' experience on former trials and data from an ongoing study, providing a reliable prediction of accrual rate for clinical studies. METHODS: In this paper, we present a user-friendly graphical user interface program developed in R. A closed-form solution for the total subjects that can be recruited within a fixed time is derived. We also present a built-in Android system using Java for web browsers and mobile devices. RESULTS: Using the accrual software, we re-evaluated the Veteran Affairs Cooperative Studies Program 558- ROBOTICS study. The application of the software in monitoring and management of recruitment is illustrated for different stages of the trial. CONCLUSIONS: This developed accrual software provides a more convenient platform for estimation and prediction of the accrual process.